As book marketers, we often obsess over metrics and models in an attempt to maximize profits and quantify success. Cost per lead, cost per acquisition, return on ad spend, conversion rates - the list goes on. Yet in our quest to parse readers into numbers and funnels, we risk losing sight of the very people we serve - the book lovers. These are not faceless data points to be tracked and targeted but living, breathing human beings with rich inner lives.
What if we flipped the script and instead of reducing our readers to metrics, we expanded our metrics to better reflect the humanity of our readers? This brings us to the concept of customer lifetime value. Lifetime value considers not simply the revenue a customer generates from an initial purchase but the potential value they represent to our business over months and years. It's a long view - one that recognizes that a book lover's relationship with stories, authors, and publishers can span a lifetime.
The Lifetime of a Book Lover
We've all had that one teacher, librarian, or family member who instilled in us a love of books from a young age. They taught us to cherish books not just as products to be consumed but as portals to imagined worlds and vehicles for ideas that transform us. The book lovers we nurture as children carry that passion into adulthood and one day pass it onto others.
The initial interaction that sparks a lifelong book obsession may involve a minimal financial exchange or none at all. A single trip to the library has little measurable value but immeasurable potential value. That child may one day work for a publishing house, start a book club, teach literature, or simply buy a heck of a lot of books over their lifetime. Even those who read only occasionally will likely purchase books as gifts and recommendations for others.
The point is we can't always trace the long arc of a reader's development or fully grasp the network effects of book lovers influencing others. We may spend heavily on ads to acquire a customer only for them to fizzle out in a few months. Meanwhile that one elementary schooler inspired by a librarian may end up a literary evangelist who indirectly generates thousands in sales.
The Imperfect Calculus of Customer Lifetime Value
So how can publishers and authors better incorporate the lifetime value of book lovers into their marketing strategies? We can start by expanding our calculation of customer lifetime value. The standard equation is:
Average Purchase Value x Purchase Frequency x Average Customer Lifespan
But this formula assumes an unrealistic linear relationship between purchases. It fails to account for the ebbs and flows over a lifetime of reading - years where one gobbles up books voraciously followed by quiet periods of minimal reading activity. We all go through reading slumps!
Nor does this calculation capture the previously mentioned influence factor of book lovers impacting others. An avid reader may only spend a few hundred dollars a year themselves but inspire friends and family to spend exponentially more.
While incorporating these indirect network effects may seem impossible, we can at least improve our understanding of customer lifespans and purchasing fluctuations. Here are a few suggestions:
Expand data collection window:
Aim for 3-5 years of customer data rather than a few months. The longer the time frame, the more insights into peak purchasing periods and lulls. These patterns inform more accurate projections.
Track influencer metrics:
Look beyond individual purchases to see which segment of book lovers exhibits the highest follower count and engagement across social media, blogs, book clubs etc. They likely indicate who influences the wider community.
Factor in life stage targeting:
Certain genres lend themselves better to specific life stages - children's books for parents of young kids, travel books for recent retirees. Targeting the right demographics helps ensure your ads reach book lovers during a likely period of peak purchasing.
Now I realize this still leaves much of the lifetime value equation unquantified. We simply cannot track every book purchased that our marketing indirectly inspires. Nor should we want to in an age where data collection raises valid privacy concerns. But that is precisely the point - the limitations reveal the need to balance quantitative modeling with qualitative empathy for what motivates book lovers. Data and emotions aren't mutually exclusive but rather complementary forces. So let's bring them together...
The Emotional Drivers of Lifetime Value
In his seminal paper on customer lifetime value, business theorist Werner Reinartz found that emotions and relationships are twice as influential as quality or satisfaction when it comes to customer loyalty and retention. This research should come as no surprise - stories stir our souls in profound ways transcending transactional measures.
Book lovers don't just read for information or entertainment. Books provide us refuge, open our eyes to new perspectives, help us make sense of both inner turmoil and global complexities. They affirm we aren't alone in the most vulnerable corners of the human experience. A single book can stay with a reader for decades, shaping their worldview in untraceable ways.
And because books carry such emotional resonance, recommendations from those we trust pack more punch than targeted ads ever could. I'll gladly try a new author my best friend raves about but remain immune to even the savviest Facebook behavioral targeting.
The challenge then for publishers and authors is building genuine connections and community with readers rather than viewing them solely as consumers. What sustains engagement over the long run isn't slick promotional messaging but rather nurturing relationships rooted in shared passions, dialogue, and mutual support.
The success stories I've observed over years in this industry always come back to authors actively engaging with fans and cultivating community - whether on book tours at local indie stores or via fan fiction sites. The most influential book marketers facilitate these meaningful connections.
Lifetime Relationships for Lifetime Value
So where does this leave us in calculating lifetime value for book marketing? We must accept that much remains immeasurable. But rather than giving up on modeling customer lifetime value, we should get creative with the intangible qualitative drivers of long-term loyalty and influence.
Here are a few ideas:
Community building metrics:
Consider newsletter open and clickthrough rates, website engagement, book club/Goodreads group size and interaction rates. These indicate who your influencers and loyalists are even if their purchases fluctuate.
Reviews analysis:
Reviews reveal the depth of reader relationship with your books - analyze not just the star rating but the language used to identify your biggest champions.
Qualitative surveys:
Directly ask your most active community members about their history with your work and books in general. Their stories will guide your understanding of lifetime reader development.
The key is maintaining perspective. Lifetime value projections will always be estimates but it is the emotional connections that drive real influence. So while obsessing over granular cost per acquisition details, don't lose the lifelong forest for the transactional trees. Allow your book community's passion to kindle your marketing spirit and lead you to right-size your models.
For at the end of the day (or rather the end of a lifetime!) it is the spark we help ignite in readers young and old that holds invaluable potential to spread the written word for generations to come. That spark lives in the heart, not the numbers. Our mission as book marketers is to keep it burning brightly.